Seasonal outlook for temperatures during the hot weather season: Govt
The Ministry of Earth Science said 2015 was the third warmest year ever recorded since 1901.
"During the Hot Weather Season of 2016 i.e. April to June warmer than normal temperatures are expected in all meteorological sub-divisions of the country. Seasonal (April-June) average temperatures over northwest India are expected to be above normal by more than 10C. Above normal heat wave (HW) conditions are very likely over central and northwest India during the Hot Weather Season of 2016," read an official statement.
" The forecast indicates that during the hot weather season of 2016, temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) in all the sub-divisions are likely to be above normal. All the temperatures (maximum, minimum and mean) of most of the sub-divisions from northwest India, Kerala from south India and Vidharbha from Central India are likely to be above normal by ≥10C," it said.
"The season averaged maximum temperatures of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Assam & Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, and Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura are likely to be warmer by <0.5oC and that of the remaining subdivisions are likely to warmer than normal by 0.5 to 10C," read the statement.
"The season averaged minimum temperatures of sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, and Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura are likely to be warmer than normal by <0.5oC and that of the remaining subdivisions are likely to warmer than normal by 0.5 to 10C," it said.
"The season averaged mean temperatures of sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur Mizoram, & Tripura and Assam & Meghalaya are likely to be warmer than normal by<0.5oC and that of the remaining subdivisions are likely to warmer than normal by 0.5 to 1oC. There is also a high probability (76%) of maximum temperatures in the core Heat Wave(HW) zone during the hot weather season of 2016 to be above normal (Fig.4). Core HW zone covers states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telengana and met subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidharbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh. This in turn suggests high probability of moderate and severe heat wave conditions in core HW zone during the hot weather season," read the statement.
Many parts of the country experience heat wave conditions during the hot weather season leading to many adverse consequences. Abnormally above normal temperatures can have devastating effects on human health, water resources and power generation and outage.
The recent research analysis suggests that frequency and duration of heat waves over the country are showing an increasing trend.
"The strong El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean that started in 2015 are still continuing. However, the latest forecasts indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to weaken further and reach weaker El Nino conditions during the hot weather season of 2016. It has been observed that during the hot weather seasons followed by El Nino years (for example: 1973, 1995, 1998, 2003, 2010, etc. followed by the El Nino years of 1972, 1994, 1997, 2002 and 2009), above normal temperatures including moderate to severe heat wave conditions were experienced in most parts of India," read the statement.
"In view of its social relevance, India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences has initiated a seasonal outlook for summer temperatures over the country based on predictions using an ocean atmosphere coupled climate model. From this season, IMD will also provide extended range forecasts (5 –day averaged forecasts for next 15 days) of heat wave conditions over the country. This will be based on the Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System developed by IITM Pune. The forecast will consist of probability of occurrence of hot days, heat waves and severe heat waves for the next 15 days updated every 5th day from 1st April, 2016 onwards. The forecasts will be made available through IMD, Delhi website (www.imd.gov.in)," it said.
Under the Monsoon Mission, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune of the Ministry of Earth Sciences has been developing a state-of-the-art coupled climate model for generating monsoon forecasts known as the Coupled Dynamical Forecast System.
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