The IMD said the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) in the current year.
"For generating the forecast for the 2017 southwest Monsoon season rainfall, atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions during March 2017 were used. The forecast was computed as the average of the 44 ensemble members. The forecast based on the MMCFS suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2017 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 96% ± 5%of the Long Period Average (LPA)," read a government statement.
"Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. Further, forecasts for the seasonal rainfall for the country suggest 38% probability for near normal rainfall scenario," read the statement.
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