Chinese INDCs will not keep global temperature rise below 2OC, says CSE

INDCs are the voluntary pledges that countries are making to cut carbon pollution ahead of the big climate change meeting in Paris at the end of the year.

The Paris climate meeting is supposed to come out with a new global deal to tackle climate change from 2020 onwards.

In its INDCs, China has pledged to peak its carbon emissions latest by 2030 and then start reducing it. It has pledged to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 60-65 per cent compared with 2005 levels by 2030. It has also agreed to raise the share of non-fossil fuels to 20 per cent of its primary energy mix by 2030 and increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters on the 2005 level by 2030.

According to the estimations done by the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), China’s INDCs are more elaborate and ambitious than the ones put out by the US and the EU. China will have 30per cent lower GHG emissions – about 6.5 billion tonnes less – than the Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario in 2030. In comparison, the US will cut its emissions only about 2 billion tonnes per year in 2030 from its BAU scenario.

“In BAU scenario, China would have emitted 22 billion tonnes of carbon pollution in 2030, but now it will emit about 16-17 billion tonnes. This is a significant reduction,” says Chandra Bhushan, Deputy Director General, CSE.

China has also pledged to install 200 gigawatts of wind power and 100 gigawatts of solar power by 2020. These are many more times of what the US plans to install during this period.

CSE’s analysis, however, also points to the fact the INDCs of China are less ambitious compared to what China had pledged to do till 2020 under the Cancun agreement. Under the Cancun Agreement in 2010, China had pledged to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 40-45 per cent compared to 2005 by 2020.

Now, it has pledged to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 60-65 per cent compared to 2005 by 2030. So, China will be reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by less than half the rate during 2020-2030 period, compared to 2010-2020 period, says the CSE analysis.

China had pledged to have 15 per cent non-fossil fuel in its energy mix by 2020. Now it has pledged to raise the share of non-fossil fuels to 20 per cent of its primary energy mix by 2030. So, an increase of mere 5 per cent from 2020 to 2030 is not exactly “ambitious”.

Although it is doing more than the US and EU, China’s total emissions in 2030 will still be very high. It will be about four times more than India’s. China’s per capita emissions in 2030 will be about 12 tonnes, similar to the US, but again four times higher than India. “Such large emissions are not in line with keeping the global temperature rise within manageable limits,” says Bhushan.

With the announcements of INDCs by China, the US and the EU – the top three polluters – it is now clear that the INDCs will not add up to limit global temperature rise by 2OC. The recently released report of the IPCC mentions that the world needs to cut its emissions between 40 and 70 per cent below 2010 levels by 2050 to stay within the 2OC temperature increase pathway. The INDCs put out so far will not allow the world to meet this benchmark.
“From our analysis, it is quite clear that the Paris deal, like the Copenhagen Accord in 2009, is likely to keep the world to a temperature increase trajectory of 4-5OC,” says Bhushan.