Sena blinks, hints alliance with BJP after exit-poll results

With just few hours to go before the election results get declared on Sunday, Shiv Sena has hinted to mend ways with former ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). On Friday, in the party mouthpiece Samnaa, Shiv Sena Chief Udhav Thackeray wrote, "There is no need to have arguments or bitterness any more. Hearts have been broken. Though it is difficult to mend broken hearts, Maharashtra needs stability and peace." In an apparent reference to a possible alliance with its estranged ally BJP in the post poll scenario, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena in its editorial asserted that whatever happened between the two parties is past and Maharashtra needs stability and for that some compromises may have to be reached.

But this was not the case few days ago as Shiv Sena locked horns and viciously attacked BJP ahead of the elections. The most scathing attack came on the day of elections. On Wednesday, in Samnaa, Uddhav Thackeray led a personal attack on Modi by referring him as “Chaiwala”.  “If a Chaiwala (Tea-vendor) Can Become PM, Why Can't I be Chief Minister?” Thackeray said in party mouthpiece Saamna on Wednesday morning. "For 25 years, we have been together; we have seen victories and routs. When the alliance collapsed, I felt deeply pained, but I did not succumb," Thackeray said in the Saamna interview. Describing BJP as power-hungry party, he added, “The BJP broke its alliance with us as they were hungry for power. They wanted to rule the state like they are ruling the country, after getting a majority in Lok Sabha elections. They thought they can divide Maharashtra if they are in power with a majority here. But the Sena will never let that happen.” The comment sparked a controversy as BJP slammed Shiv Sena immediately condemning the statement by Uddhav.

Reacting sharply to Uddhav's comment, senior BJP leader Nitin Gadkari said, "We have respect for everyone, but if they disrespect us we will not tolerate it."  Maharashtra BJP President Devendra Fadnavis said, It is very unfortunate...The language used by Sena. It is unlike Maharashtra culture. “The kind of language they have used was highly irresponsible and deeply offensive. This kind of politics is not acceptable in Maharashtra politics. The people of Maharashtra and not us will give them a fitting reply,” he added. Another BJP leader Shahnawaz Hussain said, Shiv Sena knows the truth and they know that Maharashtra has already decided to vote for BJP.

Realizing that the issue has backfired and might cast an impact on voting which is underway, Uddhav later released a statement clarifying that he meant if a common man like Modi can become PM, he can also become CM. “Common man is most powerful which is seen in Modi ji who was “chai wala” is now PM, that same power will work here,” Uddhav is quoted by media as saying.

Sena’s “U-Turn”, according to political experts is the result of different exit poll predictions, all of which clearly stated that BJP will be the largest single party in Maharashtra, with some declaring that BJP will form the next Government. Media reported, at least three exit polls put the BJP ahead but short of a clear majority in Maharashtra and Haryana. While a fourth one, gave the party a clear majority in both states.

In the outgoing assembly in Maharashtra, BJP had 47 seats while Shiv Sena had 45. Congress had 82 seats, NCP 62 and MNS had 12. ‘Times Now-C Voter’ poll predicted the BJP would bag 129 of 288 seats in the politically crucial state of Maharashtra despite the falling apart of its 25-year-old association with the Shiv Sena, which was projected to win in 56 constituencies while Congress was predicted to bag 41, NCP 30, MNS 12 and others 8. For a majority, a party has to get 145 seats. It also predicted 37 seats for the BJP in the 90-member Haryana assembly. ABP-Nielsen poll predicted 144 seats for the BJP and 77 for the Sena, while an India Today-Cicero exit poll saw the BJP winning 124 seats in Maharashtra. The poll says the Shiv Sena will be the second largest gainer in Maharashtra with 71 seats. On the other hand, Today's Chanakya, which correctly predicted the results of the Lok Sabha polls this year, predicted a clear majority of 151 seats for the BJP in Maharashtra and 52 in Haryana.

Political observers believe that following exit poll results, Sena was bound to come into terms with the BJP and wants to now reconcile. "I think the exit polls have created a deep impression on the Sena. They don't want to be politically orphaned. They were looking at an option of going with the NCP but exit polls show that NCP is is going to become irrelevant in Maharashtra after the results come out. The only option Sena has is to go with the BJP and be part of the government," analyst Kumar Ketkar is quoted by media as saying.

The smaller alliance partners of BJP such as RPI's Ramdas Athawale and Shiv Sangram Party's Vinayak Mete said on Thursday that they would be happy if the Sena and BJP come together again and form a majority government in the state which will be stable.