Two-wheeler Market
India projected to surpass China to become world's largest two-wheeler market
New Delhi/IBNS: India is projected to overtake China to become the world's largest two-wheeler nation in CY24, as per Counterpoint Research.
According to Counterpoint Research, India, in CY24, with a global two-wheeler market share of 35 percent, will take the top position just ahead of China at 34 percent.
China, with a global market share of 37 percent, was well ahead of India at 32 percent in CY23, reports said.
The projections by Counterpoint Research are based on both electric as well as ICE-powered two-wheelers.
The global two-wheeler market is predominantly concentrated in Asian countries like China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
Going forward, it is the electric two-wheeler (E2W) segment of the market that will see more growth, with over a quarter of two-wheelers sold in 2024 expected to be battery powered, as per Counterpart Research.
Commenting on the market dynamics, Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal said, “Economic growth, consumer preference for two-wheelers for short-distance commutes, and increasing two-wheeler demand in the shared mobility space will help India overtake China."
"The two-wheeler market is heading towards maturity, but the adoption of electrification is expected to rise significantly, particularly after 2025. Southeast Asian countries and especially India will witness mainstream adoption of E2Ws with a faster transition to EVs in these markets," Soumen Mandal said.
"The E2W penetration in the world’s overall 2W market is expected to grow to 1.5 times that of four-wheeler passenger EV sales in 2024. China currently leads the E2W market in terms of volumes, followed by India and Vietnam,” he added.
According to the report, the emerging E2W market is dominated by Yadea, AIMA, TAILG, Sunra and Luyuan, together capturing more than 70 percent of total sales at the end of 2023.
All these brands are “EV-first” or greenfield EV manufacturers hailing from China, highlighting the country’s dominant position in the E2W market.
Among the top 10, three E2W brands are from India – Ola Electric, TVS Motor and Ather Energy, reflecting India’s emerging presence in the E2W market.
Ola and Ather are also greenfield “EV-first” 2W companies challenging the incumbents such as TVS, Hero and Bajaj.
"In the premium 2W segment, we are seeing the entry of newer players such as Ultraviolet, Revolt Motors, Energica Motor, Damon and ARC Vehicle to compete with Harley Davidson, Enfield, Yamaha and others," the Counterpoint Research report read.
Senior Analyst Soumen Mandal further said, “The traditional 2W manufacturers such as Honda, Yamaha, Bajaj, Hero, TVS, Haojue and Piaggio, much like traditional passenger vehicle companies, have been cautious about entering the E2W space."
"However, with their R&D capabilities, production and distribution scale, experience with technology transitions, strong brand value and a loyal customer base, traditional 2W players could enjoy some advantage in expanding into the E2W market," Mandal added. "However, partnering with newer E2W ecosystem players will be a challenge for some, especially from the perspective of mindset and operations transformation.”
Counterpoint Research estimates that the E2W share in global 2W sales will reach 44 percent by 2030, while cumulative E2W sales will exceed 150 million units between 2024 and 2030, driving global scale for the emerging E2W value chain.
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