Circling Back: The BJP’s calculated embrace of Nitish Kumar amidst his political twists

Exasperated with Nitish’s move, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had said that the BJP had closed its doors to JDU leader Nitish Kumar, underscoring that the NDA would not ally with him in the future.

However, in a sudden turn of events that has tipped the political balance months before the Lok Sabha polls, the eight-time Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is back in the NDA fold.

This is his fifth change of stance in a decade, which caused a rapid decline in his popularity and his party's electoral performance.

Voters can no longer perceive Nitish’s political ideology given his tendency to quickly shift allegiance based on his own aspirations.

BJP MLAs in Bihar have given letters of support to Nitish Kumar. The party's legislators also convened a meeting in Patna today, just before Kumar submitted his resignation to Governor Rajendra Arlekar.

However, this did not come without a hefty exercise on the part of BJP’s central leadership as it had to pursue party MLAs in Bihar, who were unhappy over Nitish’s repeated jumps across the political aisle. With the Lok Sabha elections around the corner, clearly, the saffron party considers Nitish’s presence advantageous enough to overlook his mercurial attitude for the time being.

Until a few months back, Nitish Kumar was a prominent figure in the Opposition's INDIA bloc and played a leading role in uniting various parties to challenge the formidable BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said that Kumar had been instrumental in convening INDIA meetings, and the Opposition bloc anticipated his commitment to fighting against the BJP until the end. However, his recent change of stance has put the INDIA bloc in an awkward position months before the Lok Sabha polls, lending support to the BJP's argument that the Opposition alliance is inherently unstable.

Nitish Kumar had been unhappy with Congress’s attitude and accused it of assuming a "big brother" role in the alliance and causing delays in the discussions about seat-sharing. Nitish Kumar had hoped to be chosen as the leader of the opposition alliance. However, the allies opted for Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge for the role after Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal proposed his name.

Congress, which had elected Mallikarjun Kharge as its president, has been pitching Rahul Gandhi against Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Congress has a clear motive for joining the alliance—it aspires to take the lead and see one of its own, ideally Rahul Gandhi, become the Prime Minister, provided the INDIA bloc secures a majority in the Lok Sabha polls.

Over the past decade, despite his consistent changes in commitment, Kumar has managed to retain the position of Chief Minister.

However, both his personal popularity and his party's electoral performance have witnessed a steady decline.

His once-held image as 'Sushashan Babu,' the development-oriented man, has now been replaced by the perception of 'paltu kumar,' the one who frequently switches sides.

The JDU's strength in the Assembly has considerably decreased, dropping from 115 seats in the 2010 Bihar polls to 71 in 2015 and further down to just 43 in 2020.

As a result, his party holds the position of the third-largest force in the Assembly though Kumar is the Chief Minister's chair.

Whether he is aligning with the RJD or the BJP. Kumar's autonomy has diminished, as his allies hold more numerical strength. Therefore, even if the BJP allows Kumar to retain the Chief Minister post, it maintains greater control over the decision-making in the Bihar government. In this way, it becomes a win-win situation for the BJP, NDTV reports.

Kumar's frequent flip-flops over the past decade have had a negative impact on his public image.

According to the report, the BJP perceives that it has relatively little to lose in the perception game since, unlike in Madhya Pradesh or Maharashtra, it does not involve a section of ruling party MLAs switching sides.

In those states, the BJP was accused of orchestrating coups to overthrow governments. In this case, with Kumar repeatedly changing allies, the BJP is less likely to be viewed as the instigator.

As expected, BJP leaders have reverted to their "jungle raj" rhetoric to justify their willingness to collaborate with Kumar once again. "Jungle Raj" is a term used by the BJP to characterize the corruption- and crime-tainted tenure of the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led RJD.