Tripura revives oscillating Modi wave in national politics

But suddenly the Modi-Shah juggernaut seems to be rolling once again in the national politics as the saffron brigade uninstalled the 25-year old Left regime in Tripura, an apparently insurmountable task given the strong roots of the communists in the landlocked Northeastern state.

So is the BJP's sweep in the northeastern state has once again revived the Modi wave, which dominated the 2014 general elections?

The BJP was merely a party on paper in Tripura just few years ago, but on Saturday it has emerged as the most popular political force in the state.

Indeed the Modi-Shah combination has been successful in terminating the CPI-M in Tripura, the last surviving bastion for the Left if Kerala is discounted considering the trends of the voters who bring alternative party in power in every election in India's southern most state.

In Tripura, the BJP has decimated the Manik Sarkar government by securing 43 in a 60-member Assembly with a poll left still in one constituency.

The Left, which secured just 16 seats coming down from earlier 51, could barely counter the "Chalo Paltai (Lets make a change)" slogan raised by the saffron brigade ahead of the election.

The Congress, which was earlier the prime opponent of the Left in Tripura, failed to even open its account in the midst of a bilateral contest between the Left and the Right wings.

But there must be some intriguing factors that played out in this poll as well. One of the surprising facts in the poll result is the BJP's unprecedented jump in the vote share from 1% (secured in 2013) to 50% in 2018.

Political Analyst Amulya Ganguli, however, feels this is impossible realistically. Ganguli believes the BJP could never have been able to skyrocket its vote share by 49% in just one poll without "horsetrading".

"The BJP has mastered the fine art of opportunism. It has taken taken away (bought) the entire Congress party in the state. Normally it is not possible for the BJP to increase the vote share from 1% to 50% without taking the votes from the Congress. And we have seen how the BJP is a master in horsetrading in Goa, Manipur last year. The BJP has engulfed the Congress entirely in Tripura," Ganguli states.

Contradicting Ganguli,  political analyst Pradip Bhandari says "cadre mobilisation, majority vote consolidation, aggressive campaign, Modi effect and power consolidation" have worked out for the saffron party.

Image: facebook.com/narendramodi

The BJP would certainly face challenges in the state related to the tribals. The tribal and the Bengalis are at poles in the state for years. It would be interesting how the new ruler BJP addresses several such crises in the state.

Not so hopeful Ganguli says: "It is a polluted oxygen to the BJP. I am not sure much whether the BJP will be able to digest the Congress workers in its own party. There are lot of indigenous workers, not sure whether they will be able to tolerate the Congress workers.

"Moreover the tribals and the Bengalis are at loggerheads in the state. The BJP will find it extremely difficult to tackle the conflicts between the tribals and the Bengalis. The BJP government will begin to collapse after six to months what I reckon. It is not a long lasting victory. The victory will boomerang."

As every election has an impact on the national politics, the Tripura poll result is also speculated to put a brake on the Opposition's claims of turning the table in 2019 Lok Sabha or in the subsequent state elections.

Ganguli is however viewing the BJP's win in Tripura as a mere "aberration". He says, "The contest is still on for all in 2019 General Election. The Tripura poll result is just an aberration. There will be no impact on Karnataka poll which is due in two months. It will be a different ball game."

Bhandari, on the other hand, does not believe the BJP was under any kind of pressure post Gujarat poll.

Bhandari says, "BJP is in a leading position and is getting stronger with every passing day. With each victory, the hunger for more wins to serve people is increasing. The efforts and executions are improving."

According to Swarajya, the right wing Indian monthly and daily portal, the BJP's spectacular sweep in Tripura has been made possible not by fluke but by the collective efforts of many leaders and countless workers and supporters.

"But one man stands out from among them all: Sunil Deodhar. The architect of this massive victory is this man. His meticulous planning, untiring efforts, political savvy, and eye for detail have resulted in this victory," writes Jaideep Mazumdar.

"The growth of the BJP in Tripura has been fast, but very organic also. Supporters and workers of the Congress started shifting slowly to the BJP. The victory of the BJP in other states, especially in neighbouring Assam, also had its effect," says Deodhar speaking Swarajya.

So by and large, "Jo Jeeta Wohi Sikander" (one who wins, is the king), the dialogue which was echoed by Union Minister and BJP leader Smriti Irani on the national television months ago, prevails in case of Tripura.

Despite the allegations of money power manipulations (Congress is no stranger to using that in past), it is Narendra Modi who will be able to show the victory sign from the dias, disintegrating another red fort in the country.

(The writer is a staffer of India Blooms News Service. He can be reached on gsouvik359@gmail.com)