Strengthening Vietnam-China relations: Embracing a wolf in cute panda's attire

Vietnamese history books are filled with stories of heroic resistance against northern invaders, with China playing a central role in this narrative.

For over a thousand years, from the 2nd century B.C., Vietnam was under the control of various Chinese dynasties.

This extended period of subjugation, often referred to as “a millennium of grievance,” has instilled a profound sense of insecurity and a persistent reminder of the potential threat from China.

Geographically, Vietnam, a land power with coastal access, has historically prioritized addressing threats from the land over maritime concerns.

This is reflected in the Vietnamese term for "country" (đất nước), where "đất" (land) comes before "nước" (water).

The combination of geographical proximity and the power imbalance between the two nations has made the "Northern threat" a constant concern for Vietnamese political leaders.

The Vietnam-China relationship is unique, marked by party-to-party ties between their communist regimes.

High-level meetings between party leaders are often symbolic, yet they serve as a platform for maintaining strategic reassurance.

However, despite maintaining some ideological dialogue, Vietnam and China have diverged in their worldviews, with ideology playing a diminishing role in their foreign relations.

Shortly after Tô Lâm was confirmed as the new General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party, he made an official visit to China.

During this visit, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the "strategic significance" of the bilateral relationship.

Tô Lâm’s elevation is seen as favorable by Beijing for two reasons: his focus on national security aligns with Xi’s priorities, and his rise to power through anti-corruption efforts mirrors Xi’s own consolidation of power.

However, this focus on ideological purity and party solidarity also involves downplaying disputes, such as those in the South China Sea, even as China applies pressure on the Philippines.

China’s approach to international relations is centered on "partnership, not alliance," allowing Beijing to maintain economic cooperation with various countries while avoiding military entanglements.

This strategy has been part of China’s narrative of a “peaceful rise” since the 1990s.

In the past, Vietnam fiercely defended its islands and fishing fleets, but now, China appears to be overlooking Vietnam's land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands.

This is a stark contrast to the days when Vietnamese diplomats criticized the Philippines for not standing up to Chinese incursions.

While Vietnam and China have a long history of conflict, maintaining a quiet stance on their disputes currently serves Beijing’s interests, as well as Tô Lâm’s.

Although some conservatives in Hanoi still favor socialist solidarity with China, nationalist Vietnamese elites recognize that China’s foreign policy is driven by its national interests, not ideology.

Vietnam has not conceded to China’s claims over the Paracel and Spratly Islands, nor has it agreed to China’s demand to remove the Paracels from their joint maritime discussions.

China’s assertiveness in enforcing arbitrary fishing bans has forced many Vietnamese fishermen to abandon their traditional fishing grounds, while China has ramped up illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities in the region.

The pressure from China has also led Vietnam to cancel several oil and gas development projects, costing nearly $1 billion in compensation to foreign companies.

In addition to maritime issues, Vietnam’s Mekong Delta farmers are grappling with the impact of Chinese upstream dams, which have worsened drought conditions and caused unprecedented saltwater intrusion, disrupting traditional farming cycles.

Meanwhile, Chinese criminal syndicates operating in Cambodia have entrapped thousands of Vietnamese workers, leading to a dramatic escape of victims who swam across the border to safety—a moment that was captured on video and widely shared.

The Vietnam-China relationship is complex and cannot be easily explained by any single theory of international relations.

Over the years, this relationship has evolved from hostility to cooperation, and now to a mix of economic interconnectedness and increasing tension.

While neither country is interested in returning to the close “lips and teeth” relationship of the past, China remains determined to keep Vietnam within its sphere of influence.

The establishment of foreign military bases in Vietnam would complicate China’s defense strategy, making it essential for Beijing to prevent such developments.

Vietnam’s leaders are increasingly concerned about their country’s growing economic dependence on China, especially given China’s use of economic power for political leverage.

Vietnam’s long-term goal remains to reclaim what it sees as its lost territories in the South China Sea, where many of its historical invasions came from the sea.

The warming of relations between Vietnam and China may soon reveal to Tô Lâm that he is, in fact, embracing a wolf masqueraded in cute panda's clothing.