Trump may see war with Iran as key to re-election victory in 2020

On Thursday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it shot down a US surveillance drone for violating the country’s airspace, an assertion denied by Washington. Trump said Iran had made a "big mistake" but later told reporters perhaps it was not intentional.

US House Republican leaders, however, called on the Trump administration to take action over the downing of thedrown while US Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats are worked that the president will "bumble" into a war with Iran.

ELECTION OBSTACLES
Trump launched his 2020 re-election bid earlier this week in front of a crowd of nearly 20,000 people at an arena in Orlando, Florida and raised a record-setting amount of donations within the first day.

However, Trump faces many obstacles despite this promising start, according to experts, including problems related to demographics, probes and poor poll numbers.

Independent Institute for Peace &Freedom Director Ivan Eland told Sputnik that, for starters, it is important to remember that Trump narrowly threaded the needle to win the Electoral College in 2016 but not the popular vote.

"So despite the fairly good economy, his prospects for re-election don’t look that favorable," Eland claimed. "Every four years the nation’s demographics seem to be going further the Democrats way - Trump has the overwhelming support of Republicans but the party has grown smaller."

Moreover, he added, Trump’s polling numbers have dropped in the key states he barely won last time such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Trump has also shown little inclination to try to soften his populist and nationalist positions to win independent voters that he needs to win, Eland observed.
"I doubt he could win them over anyway because polls have shown people have already formed their opinion of him," he said.

California State University Emeritus Professor of Politics Professor Beau Grosscup told Sputnik that Trump now suffered from the negative impact economically of his tariff policy in agricultural and industrial states that went for him in 2016.

"Trump is likely to blame the bad weather in those agricultural states for their hard times as opposed to his tariffs, so they may give him a pass," he cautioned.
Trump is also forced to have more hostile relations with Russia than he would prefer because of the residual impact of the two year-long threat of Congressional investigations and Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, Grosscup recalled.

"The Mueller conclusion that there was a close 'helping hand' relationship with the Trump 2016 campaign has made Trump’s stance of being 'tough' on Russia more important to him… due to the criticism he has had relative to his 'cozy' relationship with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin," he said.

Trump’s hard line immigration policy could also backfire among independents and mainstream Republicans, Grosscup said.

"The more disruption the arrests and deportations cause to the national/state/local social fabric and more evidence of so-called 'concentration camps' and migrants deaths come to light, the greater the alleged and largely rhetorical American commitment to humanitarianism will carry political weight against Trump," Grosscup predicted.

DANGEROUS SOLUTIONS

Behind the efforts of cabinet members like White House Security Adviser John Bolton, the Trump administration has stepped up its military presence in the Middle East in response to intelligence reports that Iran was allegedly planning attacks on US interests and allies in the region, although not a shred of evidence has been presented to substantiate the charges.

Thursday’s downing of a US drone comes on the heels of recent attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman the United States has tried to blame on Iran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif accused the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia of coordinating a campaign to falsely blame Iran for the attacks.

Trump won the election in 2016 based on a platform of non-interventionism and boosting relations with superpowers like Russia.

However, given all the obstacles he is facing, starting a war with Iran might be tempting, according to some analysts.

"There is a great deal of wariness about the Trump Administration drumbeat of going to war with Iran, making it a huge gamble to expect that a war will unite the country in favor of a Trump - as commander-in-chief - re-election," Grosscup suggested.

Trump was therefore walking a political tightrope on many key issues and needed to hope that none of them backfired on him in the next year and a half, the analyst concluded.