Saffron Surge: Oppn Needs to Come under Cong ‘Umbrella’ to Check One-Party Dominance

In Assam too, BJP had a remarkable performance as an incumbent to secure a comfortable majority for the first time in its third straight term.

Just to take the numbers a bit further, 22 states are under some kind of saffron shade (14 states run by BJP and 8 by allies) as of May 2026. This translates to nearly 110 crore (77.7%) of India’s population. Compare this with just 7 states (27 crore) the party had under its belt at the time of Modi’s ascendency in Delhi in 2014. 

Towards One-Party Dominance

So how does one read the outcome beyond the numbers? It reflects an emerging new political reality in India in the last over a decade—continued rise of BJP to an extent that it seems to be increasingly setting the country on course towards a virtual ‘one-party rule’.

Indian experienced one-party dominance, described as ‘Congress System’ by noted Political Scientist Rajni Kothari, from the first General Elections in 1952 till 1977 when Congress lost power at the Centre for the first time.

Kothari used the formulation to explain how the Congress functioned as a broad, accommodating "umbrella" party that included multiple ideologies and social groups. Cracks in the Congress system had appeared for the first time in 1967 assembly elections when the party lost power in several states.

Since 1989, it has been a saga of coalitions with the proliferation of regional parties until Narendra Modi burst onto the national scene in 2014. BJP secured absolute majority in Lok Sabha, the first by any party in 30 years. Since then, the saffron surge has been steady with BJP replacing Congress and regional parties in one state after another. 

Since 2014, Congress has shrunk from governing 44.5 crore to 20.6 crore going by the area governed, while regional parties dropped from 35% Indians to 8%.      

What Should Be Opposition Strategy

So where do the opposition parties falter while trying to checkmate BJP? First, in most states, they have failed to come together, leading to division of votes. And second and more importantly, declining seats of Congress in successive polls since 2014 -both at the Centre and in states- is cited by the regional parties (some of them like AAP, BSP, CPM are only technically national parties as per EC’s definition) to deny the GOP the pole position in any arrangement.

Even for the I.N.D.I.A. Alliance, formed in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Congress was not given an unambiguous position of primacy and there were regional claimants like Mamata Banerjee and Stalin.

No wonder, it failed to capture the imagination of even those who were looking for an alternative. Perhaps, this is what is costing the opposition dear.

Leaders of regional parties need to have a check on their aspirations during parliamentary polls and must realise that their appeal cannot hold beyond the boundaries of the state concerned.

Congress, on the other hand, occupies the mind space of people across the country. There is always the ‘Congress Consciousness’, courtesy the legacy of the freedom movement, that has the potential to be tapped at a pan-India level. Also, most regional parties are ‘one-leader’ entities and run the risk of fading away in a few years.

Also, family-imposed dynasty goes against the grain of current popular sentiment. BJP seems to know it too well and has been relentless in its ‘Congress-Mukt Bharat’ war cry.  This will effectively ensure BJP as the prime option at the Centre and the only alternative to incumbents in states ruled by opposition parties.       

It seems imperative to keep Congress as the spearhead of any combined challenge by the Opposition. In any state-level electoral arrangement, the dominant regional party needs to give a decent number of seats to Congress and not resort to mere tokenism for the alliance to deliver the desired results.

(Images: ChatGPT Generated / Social handles of BJP and INC)