Morgan Stanley sees Sensex soaring to 1,05,000 in 2025 amid strong earnings and macro stability

Morgan Stanley has predicted the BSE Sensex could rise up to 105,000 in a bullish market backed by strong earnings growth, macroeconomic stability and robust domestic capital inflows, Business Standard reports.

Several factors like lower oil price, further interest rate cuts, government reform as well as global issues will play a role in the bullish outlook to materialise.

The base case scenario suggests the BSE Sensex would soar to 93,000 in 14 percent jump from the current levels.

Several factors like fiscal consolidation, steady retail investment and manageable equity supply are likely to drive the growth.

In the worst case scenario, Morgan Stanley predicts the BSE Sensex could tank to 70,000 in 20 percent decline from the current levels.

Underlying assumptions

For the bull case: oil stays below US$ 65/barrel, global trade tensions ease, reflation policies work.

Earnings growth assumed at 19 percent CAGR for FY25–28 in the bull scenario.

For the base case: earnings growth 17% CAGR through FY28, stable macro and domestic demand.

What to keep in mind

These are multi-year projections (to December 2026) — not short-term targets.

The probability banded scenarios mean “bull”—“base”—“bear” reflect different macro outcomes.

The report emphasises India’s relatively favourable position in emerging markets due to strong domestic demand and lower exposure to a US slowdown.