ABP-CVoter survey: NDA likely to fall short of 400-seat target, but crushing defeat in store for Congress

The survey report was released on Tuesday (Apr 16) ahead of the first phase of the elections to be conducted on April 19.

The opinion poll predicted that I.N.D.I.A bloc could follow close behind with a vote share of 39.8 percent, but the Indian National Congress (INC) is unlikely to poll more than 19.2 percent votes on its own.

According to the latest opinion poll, the NDA is likely to miss its 'ab ki baar, 400 paar (This year, 400+ seats)' target but is projected to clinch a thumping victory, winning 373 out of the total 543 seats.

The BJP could win 323 seats on its own, a rise of 20 seats since the last Lok Sabha polls of 2019, and comfortably beyond the majority mark of 272, according to the survey.

Meanwhile, The INC is projected to make a marginal gain over its 52-seat tally of 2019's polls.

The Congress is likely win 65 seats on its own in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, while its allies from the erstwhile UPA may win 59 constituencies, giving the 'UPA combine' a total seat count of 124.

The survey added that the 'united Opposition' bloc of I.N.D.I.A, comprising some more regional parties in various states, is projected to win a total of 155 seats.

However, the survey has predicted that Rahul Gandhi's 2022-23 Bharat Jodo Yatra and then the two-month-long Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in 2024 have had very little impact on voters.

Despite widespread protests by farmers and the Rajput community in several constituencies, the BJP's projected victory is on account of big wins in states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and West Bengal, among others, according to the survey.

Meanwhile, the survey has found it difficult for the Congress to even score one seat in some states and UTs — like Delhi, Himachal, Andhra Pradesh, and others, while in at least 10 states and UTs, the Congress and its allies are unlikely to score on more than one seat.