BJP poised for major gains in Bihar, exit polls predict NDA edge

According to multiple exit polls, the BJP is projected to win between 67 and 70 seats, leaving behind Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which could secure 56 to 69 seats.

Although this would still be below the RJD’s 2020 tally of 75, the BJP’s rise would mark a clear shift in Bihar’s political dynamics.

Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) is expected to win 58 to 71 seats, slightly trailing the BJP. On average, projections gave the BJP 69 seats, JD(U) 62 seats, and the RJD 63 seats — making the contest for second place particularly tight.

If these numbers hold, the BJP would reclaim its “big brother” status in the NDA, reversing the 2020 equation when Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) had taken the lead.

The party has already been a driving force in state politics since 2020, following Chirag Paswan’s decision to break away, a move that had weakened the JD(U) and left it with just 43 seats in that election.

However, analysts and voters alike remain cautious. Bihar’s electoral landscape has a history of defying exit poll predictions, with several past elections producing surprising results once the counting day arrives.

This year, nine exit polls, including those by Dainik Bhaskar, Matrize, People’s Insight, Chanakya Strategies, and People’s Pulse, point to a clear NDA victory, estimating the alliance’s total between 130 and 167 seats.

In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), led by the RJD, is projected to win between 73 and 108 seats.

The exit polls, an average of all predictions, gives the NDA 147 seats and the opposition bloc 90 seats.

If these trends translate into results, the BJP could tighten its grip on Bihar — but as political observers often caution, in Bihar, exit polls have been wrong before.