‘Greatest strategic challenge since 1971’: Shashi Tharoor-led panel flags Bangladesh crisis for India

While the panel does not foresee Bangladesh sliding into chaos or anarchy, it cautioned that New Delhi must act with urgency and strategic clarity to safeguard its long-term interests.

In a detailed assessment submitted to the government, the committee traced the current instability in Bangladesh to the rise of Islamic radical forces, growing Chinese and Pakistani influence, and the erosion of the political dominance once held by Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League.

From existential war to strategic realignment

Drawing a sharp contrast with 1971, the panel said India’s earlier challenge was humanitarian and existential, culminating in the birth of a new nation.

The present situation, however, represents a deeper and more complex shift.

This phase, the committee noted, involves a generational political discontinuity and the risk of Bangladesh drifting into a strategic realignment away from India.

If New Delhi fails to recalibrate its approach, it warned, India could lose strategic space in Dhaka not through conflict, but through gradual irrelevance.

China and Pakistan expanding footprint

The committee expressed particular concern over Bangladesh’s warming ties with Pakistan and China’s expanding presence, especially in infrastructure, ports and defence cooperation.

It cited projects such as the expansion of Mongla Port, the development of Lalmonirhat Airbase, and the submarine facility at Pekua, which can host up to eight submarines despite Bangladesh operating only two.

China’s engagement, the panel observed, now spans across Bangladesh’s political spectrum, including outreach to Islamist groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami.

It noted that representatives of the organisation have even visited China, underscoring Beijing’s broad-based diplomatic strategy.

Islamist resurgence and electoral concerns

The report flagged the growing influence of Islamist groups within Bangladesh’s political landscape.

Jamaat-e-Islami, once banned, has had its electoral registration restored, clearing the way for participation in upcoming elections.

At the same time, the interim government in Dhaka has imposed a ban on the Awami League, barring it from contesting polls.

The committee warned that excluding a major political force raises serious questions about the inclusiveness and credibility of future elections.

“The continuing ban on the Awami League will inevitably undermine the legitimacy of any electoral process,” the panel said.

Recommendations to protect India’s interests

To counter emerging risks, the committee urged the government to closely monitor foreign involvement in Bangladesh and prevent any external power from establishing a military foothold.

It also recommended that India offer Dhaka tangible advantages in development cooperation, regional connectivity and port access to retain strategic influence.

As Bangladesh navigates a volatile political transition, the panel’s report underscores that India’s response in the coming months could shape the bilateral relationship for decades to come.