Tauktae likely to be very severe cyclonic storm, warns IMD

The depression over Lakshadweep area shifted north-north-eastwards at a speed of about 19 kmph and is now centred over Lakshadweep about 30 km south southwest of Amini Divi, 320 km west-southwest of Kannur (Kerala), 1120 km south southeast of Veraval (Gujarat) at about 11.30 am on May 14, the MeT has said, reported Hindustan Times.

In the next 24 hours, it is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and is likely to intensify further in the subsequent 24 hours.

It is likely to  move north north-eastwards initially for some more time and then move north-north westwards and reach the Gujarat coast by the morning of May 18, the weatherman said, the report added.

“As on today we cannot say very clearly if it will cross the Gujarat coast. But the probability of crossing the coast cannot be ruled out. It may skirt the coast early on May 18. Because it’s a large system, it will bring a lot of heavy and extremely heavy rainfall in its path. It is also an intense system,” said Sunitha Devi, in charge, cyclones at IMD, according to the HT report.

She said most cyclonic storms develop in the Arabian Sea in May end and early June and cited the examples of 1998 Gujarat cyclone and severe cyclonic storm Vayu.

"So, while cyclone formation in May in the Arabian Sea is rare, it often happens when monsoon sets in,” added Sunitha, the report said.

"Light to moderate rain with extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm) is likely over Lakshadweep on May 13 and 14; over Kerala on May 13; over ghat areas of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka on May 15. It is likely to rain on May 13, 14, 15, 16 and 17 in all these places," the IMD said., according to the report.

"In Konkan and Goa, light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely on May 15 and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places on May 16 and 17. In Gujarat, rainfall activity is very likely to begin from May 17 with a significant increase during the subsequent 2 days and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Saurashtra and Kutch on May 18 and 19."

Southeast, east-central and northeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives area and Lakshadweep Islands and along and off Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, Gujarat coasts will face the major impact of the cyclone.