Xi Jinping confident of winning third term in power, feels political analyst

Congress years in China typically see a flurry of political activity, as senior officials compete to join the bodies that will steer Chinese policymaking over the subsequent five to 10 years.

Delegates to the CCP’s National Congress are first selected by congresses in China’s 31 provincial-level regions, which have all now concluded.

In half of these regions, the party secretary has been replaced during the past year, representing a significant turnover in local leadership, writes political analyst Dan Macklin in his article published in The Diplomat.

Among the appointees are numerous allies and associates of Xi, including Liang Yanshun in Ningxia, Ni Yuefeng in Hebei, and Sun Shaocheng in Inner Mongolia.

Meanwhile, many existing Xi protégés leading China’s largest population centers have been reconfirmed in their roles, at least until the National Congress.

This means that Cai Qi in Beijing, Li Xi in Guangdong, Chen Min’er in Chongqing, and even Li Qiang in COVID-troubled Shanghai should all be reappointed to the Politburo.

Increasingly, Xi’s allies are dominating not just the major territorial positions but also key functional areas of government.

Take the new minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, who held senior policing roles in Fujian during the 1990s and 2000s, while Xi was rising through the province’s political ranks.

Wang is the first former police officer to become public security minister in over two decades, which may signal that Xi plans to further prioritize law enforcement during his next term, Dan wrote.

Dan said the most important rivals to Xi and his allies are the Tuanpai, officials who rose through the Communist Youth League under former President Hu Jintao and outgoing Premier Li Keqiang.

But their influence has waned significantly during Xi’s first two terms, and several Tuanpai stars have recently been sidelined from front-line politics, wrote Dan.

Xi Jinping appears confident and projected this confidence while visiting Hong Kong on July 1, his first trip away from the mainland since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

He and other members of China’s political elite will now prepare for their traditional summer retreat at Beidaihe, and with his position looking secure, Xi might decide to spend time less on political horse-trading and more time putting his feet up, writes the political analyst.